CRIM 595 Temporal Project

This project shows the trends for larceny calls in the City of Fairfax, with the first occurring January 1, 2007 and the last occurring April 30, 2023.

Total Number of Larceny Calls Made Each Day of Week (dow)

The average number of larceny calls made each day is about 1, with 1 or no larceny calls occurring most frequently. This graph is highly skewed to the left showing that lower numbers or more common than higher numbers. Days with 5 or more larceny calls are less frequent than days with less calls. For days where there were no larceny calls made, Sunday has a significantly higher count than the rest of the days of week. After days were only 1 larceny call was made Sunday has the lowest count for larceny calls, showing that Sunday has a lower larceny rate than the rest of the days of week. Since the most frequent number of larceny calls made each day of the week is 1 and 0, it can be assumed that next week everyday will have 1 or 0 larceny calls. It would be unexpected if next week a day had more than 5 larceny calls.

Larceny Calls Made Every Month Since 2007

The average number of larceny calls made per month is 42. Very few months have over 62 larceny calls and most have at least 23 larceny calls. There is no month that has significantly less or more larceny calls than another month, however, December, July, and January account for the top 5 larceny calls made in a month. July has the most and the least number of larceny calls made during a month with most of its larceny call totals being slightly under the average. Most month’s larceny call totals occur around the monthly average, with no clear pattern showing what months are more likely to have more larceny calls than others.

Larceny Trends by Day of Week and Hour of Day

Throughout each day of the week the time of day that larceny calls are frequently made remain very consistent with small changes for each day of the week. Larceny calls for each day of the week are less likely to occur between the hour 23 to 6. Sunday has the least number of hotspots across the various hours of the day, but as previously mentioned the least number of larceny calls occurs on Sundays so this is expected. The most frequent time larceny calls occur are the hours 12 to 16, with Friday and Monday having the highest number of calls during this time. The hours of the day that people are most likely to be out of their house have a higher amount of larceny calls than hours where people are most likely to be at home. Based on this graph most future larceny calls will occur during hours 12 to 16, with Friday and Monday having a larger number of calls and Sunday having the least number of calls. In addition, very few larceny calls will occur between 23 to 6 as people are most likely to be at home during these hours.

Larceny Trends by Day of Week and Month of Year

Based on this graph the day of week has a larger impact on larceny calls than the month, as most months have a similar hotspot level. Across all months the fewest larceny calls are made on Sundays and Saturdays. February and November have the least number of larceny calls across all days of the week. On Friday most months have a small hotspot of larceny calls, except for January, June, and December. Monday has the largest hotspots across all months with July having the most number of larceny calls on this day. Outside of these exceptions most months have very similar larceny call rates, so it should be expected that most months in the future have very similar larceny rates with no month having a significantly higher call number.

Larceny Trends by Month of Year and Year

Between 2015 and 2020 there were lower larceny calls being made across all months of the year. The yearly trend affects how many larceny calls are received in a month, showing that there is no monthly trend because one month is not consistently higher or lower than the others. In 2021 more months had higher counts of larceny calls suggesting that larceny calls are increasing. In 2023 the second highest number of larceny calls was made in December and afterwards no month has received less than 50 calls, which has not occurred in previous years. It is hard to predict August of 2023 with 3 months of data missing, however, assuming this pattern of no month going under 50 calls remains August will most likely have at least 50 calls because the monthly trend follows the trend established throughout the year.